Stats all folks!
By TMX Archives on 15th Jan 09
IF anyone wants to manipulate statistics, they can prove' just about anything, but a thoughtful interpretation of the bare facts and figures can often throw up some interesting developments. We have taken the mass of numbers spit out by the Youthstream computer, added a few of our own, and come up with some surprising results.
MX1 CLASS
AFTER the years of Everts domination, neither of the last two MX1 champions has achieved outstanding figures other than in the one that counts, to score the most points during the season, but a more careful analysis of David Philippaerts' achievements show just how wide of the mark statistics can be.
The Italian didn't win the most GPs, or the most motos, he was never on pole and didn't even mount the podium (other than to collect the red plate) the most times, but he was still the dominant figure of 2008.
But the 24-year-old did establish the fastest race lap six times in 15 GPs. Only Sebastien Pourcel also managed this feat more than once and,
even more impressive, ‘Il Mostro' was eating dirt in the pack on five of the
six occasions, but he whipped the Monster Rinaldi Yamaha round the track faster than anyone else!
Those rides at Mantova, Mallory, Loket Teutschenthal, and Lierop are already legendary, and the cold facts underline just how impressive they were. It is often claimed that a title is won on the bad days. David didn't have any, if you exclude the races mid-summer when he was carrying a broken rib, but it was these races, when Phi' commitment turned potential disaster into podiums or near-podiums, that saw him wreck the opposition for consistency.
His mechanic, Gerald Wever, ensured that his only mechanical defect all year was the burnt-out clutch in Ireland, and even that couldn't keep him out of the top four; despite numerous first lap incidents which put him at the tail of the field, he finished 25 of the 29 motos in the top six, and steady Steve Ramon was the only rival to achieve that more than 19 times.
If titles were won on laps led, or on GP or moto wins, Jonathan Barragan and Max Nagl would be right up there, but the KTM duo only had fourth and sixth place in the series to show for their efforts. The reasons are plain to see. The Spaniard had four zeros to his name across the season, while the German failed to make top six 12 times in 29 races.
The orange bikes simply weren't in the hunt during the first half of the year, but, if the season had started on July 1, KTM would have been manufacturers' champion with 306 points to the 287 of Suzuki and Yamaha's 264. And, in those same seven GPs, Nagl scored 265 points, Barragan
263, Ken De Dycker 250, Ramon 245 and Philippaerts only 243.
But those are just statistical games. David Philippaerts was the deserved champion over the entire season and, especially in the Faenza finale, was taking no risks for tactical reasons; he had already done the hard work and just had to ride it home, making sure none of the Belgian mine-sweepers took away his wheels.
More direct input in that final round could have brought Yamaha the manufacturers' title too, but who, other than board-room level in Japan, takes any notice of that particular honour? When Ramon finally got his finger
out to chase down Josh Coppins in the second moto at Faenza, he clinched the honour for Suzuki, but it was a pretty dull consolation.
The riders who have the most to think about during the close season are Pourcel, Marc De Reuver and Billy MacKenzie.
Only Barragan won more GPs than the Frenchman and the Dutchman, and both were prominent in Qualifying, but one missed GP between them was not the reason they only ended the series seventh and tenth respectively.
It was so often all or nothing for both of them. Only one of Pourcel's five podiums came on a day when he didn't win a moto, and De Reuver, whose lack of commitment could see him struggling to make the points one week and racing for the win the next, won just as many GPs as motos.
‘Billy Mac' can look forward with more optimism to an upward trend in 2009. He had a pole, led more laps than Ramon, but didn't pick up a single podium trophy all summer. The British champ had the speed, and he could produce it week in, week out. The missing factor was the inability to keep it on two wheels for 40 minutes. Billy had never raced so fast before and that means life on a razor's edge. Already at Mallory, Graham Noyce told me over a beer that he saw much of himself back in 1978 in Billy, and in 1979 he put it over the best in the world. The most enigmatic rider in the history of the sport is convinced Billy can follow him into the record books next year.
MX2 CLASS
WHILE ten riders went to the line of every MX1 race with realistic hopes of victory, only three men really counted in MX2, and, after Toni Cairoli got hurt in South Africa, the count was down to just two.
The only races which the Italian and the KTM duo of Tyla Rattray and Tommy Searle didn't win were the ludicrous Spanish lottery in the mud, a Nico Aubin moto win at Mantova, Zach Osborne's late-season flurry at Fairyhouse and the second moto success of Gert Krestinov at Lommel when all of the expected front runners piled-up at turn one.
And Davide Guarneri won the horror GP at Bellpuig even though he was hopelessly stuck on the hillside as the red flag came out, while Nico Aubin's third places in South Africa and Lierop were the only podiums for any of the quartet through the rest of the year.
Little wonder then that Rattray and Searle, with 24 podium finishes bet-ween them, were more than 200 points clear of third by the end of the summer.
And there was little chance of a podium for anyone other than one of the KTMs or Cairoli while all three were around. During the first nine GPs, apart from the Spanish lottery, only the sand-
hopper Erik Eggens at Valkenswaard, Anthony Boissiere in France, Steven Frossard at Teutschenthal and Shaun Simpson in Bulgaria and Sweden picked up a podium. And even those came predominantly because Searle or Cairoli had been on their ear during their embittered duels.
Tyla Rattray's title was a deserved one. He didn't win the most GPs, but the 22-year-old South African won 12 motos out of 30 and was only pushed out of first or second on the day twice – in Spain and Lommel – all year. His consistent speed over the full 40 minutes also rendered it unnecessary to record more than three fastest laps.
Aubin's Mantova moto win apart, the only man who ran with the top three all year was the fast-gating Scot, Simpson, but his mid-season high came at the expense of his speed in the closing GPs. Admittedly his shoulder injury didn't help, but a training plan which saw him peak too early meant that the Scot struggled through the final weeks. Under the watchful eye
of the KTM management, Shaun has already started to re-plan his preparation for 2009.
The man who put the cat amongst the pigeons during the latter part of the season was Osborne. A thoroughly deserved moto win in Ireland, and two wins in qualifying, but no podium – the American and Yamaha will have to find a solution, which will ensure that their over-revved motor gets to the finish.
Stephen Sword's final ranking clearly dipped because of his mid-season injury absence from two GPs, but the Scot's statistics both before and after the injury showed that he was only just, but nevertheless, just off a winning pace. Top six in half the motos he started, Swordy was never first three.
The stats show just how unnecessary the age cap will be in 2010 which will push Stephen back to MX1 after one last MX2 fling next summer – he only other rider in the first 17 of the series last summer who was also over 23 was Manuel Monni (24).
The manufacturers' title was a clear-cut victory for KTM in the end, but the 85-point winning margin hides the fact that just six
points separated them from Yamaha prior to Cairoli's South African injury. What a difference one rider can make!
The Italian manufacturers were never in the hunt in either class but how about a cheer for Husqvarna; Antoine's Meo point at Faenza was the only one for a two-stroke all year!